I feel obligated to put out an election preview post, though I struggle to find much to say that has not already been said at the national level. I’m not really in the forecasting business, and I enjoy carrying on my feeble localist quest to not let my opinions on national politics to bleed into writing on other issues. But I live in a state that probably has the highest percentage of competitive congressional seats in the country (outside of those with one or two seats), a gubernatorial election and two open senate seats, and also a whole bunch of other stuff.
The race for the Minnesota Eighth Congressional District, my home district, has mostly made me not want to pay any attention. (Way-too-early preview here; primary reaction here.) The level of discourse has been truly putrid, and I am left trying to decide whether I prefer a congressional representative who had a few parking tickets and smoked pot once or one who sent a handful of harmless emails from the wrong account. That’s what’s at stake here, right?
As has become the norm, we likely won’t know the outcome in MN-8 until late in the night on Tuesday. I’m taking it as a given that Pete Stauber will gain on Stewart Mills’ margin two years ago on the Iron Range, but that leaves a few questions that could swing the outcome. First, do the North Metro bits of the district become slightly bluer in a year when the suburbs are trending in that direction, or are they too far out for that wave to reach? But, if this is a close race, in the end I think the most crucial battleground will be Duluth. The Stauber name is well-known here, but it is also a Democratic bastion, and high turnout around Duluth was probably the difference-maker for Nolan in 2016. I’m not convinced Radinovich has done enough to shore up that flank, especially with Skip Sandman set to skim off a healthy chunk of voters disillusioned by his embrace of non-ferrous mining projects on the Range. My bead on this race hinges on two rather contradictory New York Times polls and a lot of guesswork from my work-related travels to most corners of MN-8; after Stauber seemed to take command of the race in October, my sense (shared by that of MN-8 election punditry eminence Aaron Brown) is that Radinovich is closing some down the stretch, but it may not be enough unless it really does turn into a big night for Democrats nationally. I have a lot of thoughts on both campaigns, but we’ll save the Monday morning quarterbacking for Wednesday.
In the rest of the Minnesota House seats, anything seems possible, from Democrats controlling seven of eight to a surprise upset of Collin Peterson in CD-7 giving the Republicans six, or just four seats flipping for a net change of zero. The other big-ticket races will only be dramatic if the Republicans dramatically over-perform the polls. Amy Klobuchar will roll to re-election, Tim Walz seems like a fairly comfortable favorite over Jeff Johnson, and Tina Smith probably has enough of a wave beneath her to resist fend off a spirited effort from Karin Housley. The most interesting statewide race of the night may be the Attorney General contest between Keith Ellison and Doug Wardlow, in which neither candidate has exactly piled up the positive press.
Meanwile, here in Duluth, there is one local race that’s actually interesting: we have three school board levies on the ballot. The first renews an existing levy and a second aims to reduce class sizes; as someone who would like to send his children to good Duluth public schools someday, they are no-brainers. I am a bit peeved by the third one, which focuses on technology upgrades instead of increasing class options, which the school board momentarily discussed. Moreover, the digital divide between the rich and the poor is increasingly the reverse of what conventional wisdom might assume. Poor kids get screens shoved in front of them for diversion all the time now, while the well-off have recognized that things like human interaction and personal attention, shockingly, are more valuable to their kids’ well-being, and forced their schools to respond accordingly. Students need personal attention, smaller classes, and—most relevant to ISD 709—seven-period days that allow for more class choice. But I doubt that one will pass anyway; the second question will also likely face serious opposition, and if its rejection is a prelude to some fresh thought on some of these questions within the district, it won’t be the end of the world.
I could trail on, but the world really doesn’t need any more pre-election hypothesizing. I’ll save my comments for the day after, if we know who’s won by then. Time to swallow my cynicism over awful ads and nationalized campaigns for a little while and get the popcorn ready. Even when it’s terrible, democracy can still be pretty entertaining.